The lessons of the Ukraine war are still being debated and assessed. After all, there still is no official winner in this conflict. But the war has clearly accelerated certain military trends, experts have said, indicating how future wars will be fought. Social media is perhaps the greatest innovation in this war. The internet has been replete with videos of Russian armour being destroyed by Ukrainian operatives, an underdog narrative amplified repeatedly by official Ukrainian channels.

We construct a computer model that allows us to simulate the effect of counterinsurgency operations on a population of agents. We build a society of agents who are interconnected in an established social network. Each agent in this network engages in political discourse with other agents over the legitimacy of the existing government. Agents may decide to support an insurgency, join an insurgency, side with the existing government, or remain neutral over which group to support. Using this model we explore the relative importance of social network structure, influence effectiveness, and combat operation effectiveness in minimizing insurgent strength.

The development of tools to provide insight into the behavioral response of a civilian population will greatly benefit the modeling and simulation community and have potential applications across multiple user communities in the U.S. Department of Defense. We present an overview of a modular agent-based modeling framework, grounded in the human behavioral and social theory, which is intended to represent a populations’ stance on issues as a function of their changing beliefs, values and interests. We utilize and integrate theories of narrative identity [1] and planned behavior [2] with macrosociological theories of heterogeneity and influence [3][4] to model civilian behavior in a conflict ecosystem. Communication between agents takes place across a social network developed using real data about the population under consideration, and essential services are implemented as objects within the model allowing for experimentation with different courses of action for development of civil service capacity. We describe the theoretical underpinnings of the model, the current state of implementation, potential use cases, and the path forward for future work.